It mirrors a growing erosion of international law and a weakening of multilateral mechanisms, said Armin Krzalic, a security expert from Bosnia and Herzegovina, warning that the normalization of unilateral military action could further fragment the international order and heighten the risk of a broader regional conflict.

LONDON/BRUSSELS, March 4 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly criticized Britain and Spain for refusing to back U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, laying bare deepening strains within the transatlantic alliance.

The divide widened on Tuesday as French President Emmanuel Macron said the military operations were conducted "outside international law" and could not be approved by France, even as Washington pressed European allies for solidarity.

WIDENING TRANSATLANTIC GAP

Compared with its rapid coordination following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe's reaction this time has been strikingly cautious, uneven and, in some cases, openly critical.

Even where European capitals share concerns about Iran's missile and drone capabilities, many have been careful to emphasize "restraint," "diplomacy" and civilian protection rather than line up behind the military campaign.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has drawn a line between limited defensive cooperation and offensive participation, telling Parliament it is his duty to judge Britain's national interest and confirming Britain would not join "offensive strikes." Starmer was swiftly rebuked by Trump, who said the Britain-U.S. relationship is "obviously not what it was."

The U.S. president went further on Tuesday, threatening to "cut off all trade with Spain" after Madrid refused to authorize the use of joint bases for attacks on Iran. The Spanish government responded later that it has the necessary resources to contain the potential impact of a trade embargo.

As for Germany, Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul on Monday clarified that Germany has no intention of participating in military operations against Iran.

Germany, France and Britain have signaled willingness to defend their interests and allies through "necessary and proportionate defensive action," including measures aimed at degrading Iran's ability to launch missiles and drones. Yet in practice, the emphasis has been on defense rather than participation in strikes.

Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro has also urged "maximum restraint" and said Lisbon's position aligns with the principles of the UN Charter.

In Croatia, President Zoran Milanovic warned that any unilateral force in violation of international law is dangerous and that the clear intent of the military intervention is to change the Iranian government, which could bring painful and lasting consequences for European citizens, including Croatians.

The escalation, openly backed politically and militarily by the U.S. administration, sets "a serious precedent" in modern international relations, said Armin Krzalic, a security expert from Bosnia and Herzegovina.

It mirrors a growing erosion of international law and a weakening of multilateral mechanisms, he said, warning that the normalization of unilateral military action could further fragment the international order and heighten the risk of a broader regional conflict.

SOCIOECONOMIC FALLOUT

Even without direct military involvement, Europe is feeling the fallout of the conflict through energy markets and transport disruption.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped about 9 percent to above 85 U.S. dollars per barrel on Tuesday, its highest level since July 2024.

French daily Le Monde noted that tanker traffic near the Strait of Hormuz was close to a standstill, and that, according to a French shipowners' group, dozens of French-flagged or French-owned vessels were trapped inside the Gulf.

The crisis has elevated a major global energy-security risk -- disruption to oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) flows through Hormuz, a route that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil trade and global LNG trade, said Simone Tagliapietra, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a think tank.

Guntram Wolff, another senior fellow at Bruegel, said higher energy prices would act as a trade shock, eroding purchasing power and weighing on Europe's recovery while pushing inflation higher.

In Germany, the price impact has been immediate. Diesel prices rose sharply again after weekend increases, while analysts warned market price moves can far exceed the underlying supply loss.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at the Danish investment firm Global Risk Management, said markets may be underestimating the risk of a prolonged Hormuz shutdown.

Stephen Dover, head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, said shipping costs are rising and insurance is a key driver, with some reports putting per-voyage cost increases as high as 50 percent.

In Italy, the fuel industry is bracing for a prolonged squeeze. Gianni Murano, president of Unem, an association representing fuel companies, told local media that diesel prices had risen by 10 euro cents (0.12 U.S. dollars) per litre, an 18 percent increase, warning that the conflict's duration would be decisive.

He also flagged Italy's vulnerability to LNG disruption, noting imports from Qatar account for about half of Italy's LNG imports. Alternative sourcing may be possible, he said, "but prices would rise."

The Netherlands faces a twin hit of higher prices and low reserves. Dutch gas futures surged and storage levels were described as historically low. Rene Peters, an energy expert at the research organization TNO, warned that refilling stocks for next winter could become costly.

"The spillover effects of this new conflict have been immediate. The shipping company has switched from the Suez Canal to sending vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. This will disrupt supply chains," said John Bryson, a professor with the University of Birmingham.

"There has been an immediate increase in oil and gas prices. For many countries, this conflict will be inflationary, leading to rapid price inflation," he said.

The EU's asylum agency has issued some of the starkest projections. The European Union Agency for Asylum warned that even partial destabilization in Iran, a country with a population of over 90 million, could generate refugee movements of "unprecedented magnitude."

"A prolonged conflict may trigger new waves of mass migration, flowing from Iran to Turkey (Trkiye), through the Balkans, to our border," Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban warned on Tuesday in a post on X.