Bulgaria appears to be nearing the final stretch of its long path toward adopting the euro, with early 2026 emerging as a likely target date. According to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), the country, which has aspired to join the eurozone for over 16 years, now seems ready. Signals from Brussels point to a positive assessment, with Bulgaria reportedly meeting key accession criteria. Inflation currently stands at 2.8%, which is within the acceptable range, not exceeding the benchmark by more than 1.5 percentage points. The country also keeps its budget deficit and public debt within the required limits. If Bulgaria joins the eurozone on January 1, 2026, it will become the 21st member of the monetary union, following Croatia's accession.

Economists expect that entry into the eurozone would bring considerable advantages for Bulgaria, the poorest EU member state. As outlined by the credit rating agency Scope, the move would reduce transaction costs and foster trade, boosting economic growth and helping the country move closer to the EU average in terms of living standards. However, despite the expected economic upsides, skepticism remains strong among the public. Many Bulgarians fear that the transition to the euro may drive up prices and make everyday life more expensive.

Political tensions within the country also play a role in the unease. The divide between those favoring deeper EU integration and those leaning toward closer relations with Russia has contributed to a turbulent political environment. This instability, Scope notes, is one of the risks that could still delay the process. The FAZ recalls how President Rumen Radev, seen as sympathetic to Moscow, recently called for a referendum on euro adoption - a move perceived as an attempt to stall the transition. Frankfurter Rundschau suggests that Radev may be trying to position himself as a nationalist alternative ahead of the end of his mandate, capitalizing on growing discontent.

Beyond the political wrangling, misinformation has further fueled public resistance to the euro. According to Tageszeitung, Bulgaria is particularly vulnerable to disinformation campaigns due to a mix of social division, mistrust in media, and a fragile political landscape. Analysts believe that many of these narratives originate from Russia and are spread by hundreds of local and foreign websites. These campaigns aim to undermine support for the euro, as Moscow opposes stronger EU integration for Bulgaria. The Berlin-based newspaper warns that the flow of money from these sources into Bulgarian media circles has been significant, making the fight against fake news all the more difficult.

Despite the domestic challenges, Bulgaria remains officially committed to adopting the euro - a condition of its EU membership since joining the bloc in 2007. Only Denmark has opted out of this obligation through a specific agreement. Yet, five other EU countries?Sweden, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Romania - have held back from joining the eurozone, even though they meet the formal criteria.

Since 1997, the Bulgarian lev has been pegged - first to the German mark, and later to the euro - making the transition less disruptive in monetary terms. This currency board arrangement, together with EU membership and low levels of national debt, has contributed to Bulgaria's ?BBB with a positive outlook? credit rating from Fitch. The European Commission forecasts 2% GDP growth for Bulgaria this year. Nonetheless, Fitch also points to some persistent weaknesses: low labor productivity, high levels of perceived corruption, and a worsening demographic profile - all of which could weigh on long-term economic prospects, even within the eurozone.